Financial Crises in Retrospect of Turkish Economy: Evidence from a Probit Model 1970-2018

This study empirically investigates the determinants of financial crisis which occurred in the Turkish economy in 1994, the late 1997 and 2007 respectively. A probit model is conducted by the main tool to identify the leading indicators of financial crisis using a sample of annual data covering the period 1970-2018. The evidence found in this paper indicates that terms of trade shock (TT), per capita income growth (CAPG) and M2 Reserve (M2R) are the best indicators, which determine financial crisis in the Turkish economy. Besides, real exchange misalignment (RER), current account balance (CABR) and annual reserve money to GDP (ARM) were not found significant in favour of the financial crisis. Based on our estimated results, (i) Turkish financial system may need a new law and regulation framework to improve the strength of the Turkish financial system. (ii) In the Turkish economy, human sources and facilities such as electronic communication have to be used efficiently. (iii) Macroeconomic stability and political soundness are the keys to the solution of the dilemma.