Estimating the Effect of Terrorism on Agricultural Production in Nigeria

Nigeria has always been affected by terrorism but since the late 2000s, there has been a sharp increase in terrorism perpetrated by Boko Haram and Fulani Herdsmen terror groups. The rise in terrorism and insurgency has decimated communities and farmers have fled to protected camps. In view of that background, this paper estimates the effect of terrorism on agricultural output in Nigeria over the period 1971 to 2019. Our empirical results provide evidence which indicates that terrorism (as measured by the number of fatalities) has a negative and significant effect on agricultural output. Furthermore, this negative impact was larger over the period 2011 to 2019. This period corresponds with the onset of escalated violence from Boko Haram and Fulani Herdsmen terror groups. The following policy implications were deduced. First, government should pursue credible policies in reducing the violent attacks on farmers. Second, nomadic cattle herders should be trained and encouraged to adopt modern techniques in animal husbandry. Third, government should equip forest rangers and guards to help safeguard rural and farming communities.