Projections of migration inflows under alternative scenarios for the UK and world economies

This study investigates the impact of economic fluctuations on the migrant stocks and flows in the UK. The stock of migrants depends on the speed of reaction to economic events and the net flow of migrants. Using a forecast of the UK we can project the number of migrants. Stylised projections by the ONS for years after 2015 are probably too large. The paper suggests a downward revision to migrant projections of around 360,000 by 2015 as a result of the downturn, reducing trend growth by 0.1 to 0.15 per cent per year until 2015. The result shows that stock adjustment is more rapid in A8 countries in comparison to the other source regions.