Comparing European CO2 emission trends before and after the 2008 economic crisis: A case study of four European countries

The paper investigates and compares the evolution in carbon dioxide emissions in 4 major economies of the European Union (Germany, France, United Kingdom, and Spain) between the period of economic growth (2004 – 2008) and the period of economic crisis (2008 – 2012). Decomposing the Kaya identity of five inter-related factors, namely energy intensity, mix energy, carbon emission coefficient, production and population, this study shows that the CO2 emission decreased most importantly between 2008 and 2012. The decline in energy intensity is the major source of CO2 emission reduction in both periods, but energy intensity deteriorated in times of economic crisis. The population effect on the other hand contributed to an increase in carbon emissions. Different scenarios to analyse the emissions reduction opportunity through successful experiences of selected countries show that the overall carbon dioxide emission in the sample could be reduced by 293 MtCO2 or 16% compared to the 2012 level through more improvements in carbon emission coefficient, energy mix and energy intensity. Germany would reduce 20% of CO2 emission. Spain and United Kingdom would gain 19% and 15%, respectively. The saving would be less important in France, accounting for about 6% of CO2 emission compared to 2012 value.