Estimating spatial and temporal patterns of urban anthropogenic heat fluxes for UK cities: the case of Manchester

A model is proposed for determining the temporal and spatial patterns of anthropogenic heat fluxes in UK urban areas. It considers buildings, traffic, and metabolic heat flux sources and has been evaluated to a good accuracy against alternative data for the Greater Manchester area in the UK. Results are presented at spatial resolution of 200 × 200 m although the model itself is scalable depending on data availability. In this paper, results are generated using a set of urban morphology units so that detailed and time-consuming accounting of individual building and road emissions is not required. The model estimates a mean heat emission of 6.12 Wm-2 across Greater Manchester, with values in the region of 10 Wm-2 for non central urbanized areas and 23 Wm-2 in city center areas. Despite this difference, the results are not described by a simple distance decay function, as has been reported for other cities, due to the influence of satellite towns and the influence of the road network. Buildings are the dominant emitter, contributing some 60% of total emissions across the city compared to around 32% for road traffic and 8% for metabolic sources.