Is there a Causal Relationship between Oil Prices and Tourist Arrivals?

Date

2020

Advisors

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

ISSN

1360-0532

Volume Title

Publisher

Taylor & Francis

Type

Article

Peer reviewed

Yes

Abstract

This application note investigates the causal relationship between oil price and tourist arrivals to further explain the impact of oil price volatility on tourism related economic activities. The analysis itself considers the time domain, frequency domain and information theory domain perspectives. Data relating to the US and nine European countries are exploited in this paper with causality tests which include time domain, frequency domain, and Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM). The CCM approach is nonparametric and therefore not restricted by assumptions. We contribute to existing research through the successful and introductory application of an advanced method, and via the uncovering of significant causal links from oil prices to tourist arrivals. Keywords: Oil price; tourist arrivals; causality; convergent cross mapping; granger causality

Description

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version.

Keywords

tourist arrivals, causality, convergent cross mapping, oil price

Citation

Hassani, H., Ghodsi, M., Huang, X. and Silva, E. (2020) Is there a causal relationship between oil price and tourist arrivals? Journal of Applied Statistics,

Rights

Research Institute

Institute for Applied Economics and Social Value (IAESV)