Browsing by Author "Zeng, Bo"

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    Application of the novel-structured multivariable grey model with various orders to forecast the bending strength of concrete
    (Elsevier, 2023-02-10) Zeng, Bo; Yin, Fengfeng; Yang, Yingjie; Wu, You; Mao, Cuiwei
    Bending strength of concrete is one of the significant indexes to measure the mechanical properties of concrete. A reliable prediction about the bending strength of concrete is of great importance to maintain the health state and service life of concrete. However, it is difficult to obtain reliable data of large samples due to the high cost, serious destructiveness and complex influencing factors of concrete bending strength test data collection. In view of this, based on the multivariable grey prediction model whose modeling object is small data, we construct a new novel-structured multivariable grey prediction model with various orders for predicting the bending strength of concrete. It defines and optimizes the accumulative orders differentially and introduces a nonlinear correction term to expand the model structure. Then, the bending strength of concrete is modeled using the new model, and its comprehensive error is only 0.035 %, which is much smaller than the conventional NSGM(1,N) and FMGM(1,N) models (5.232 % and 2.624 %, respectively). The findings provide a new modeling method for the prediction of concrete bending strength in areas with large temperature difference, and have significance for enriching and improving the methodologies of grey prediction models.
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    ItemOpen Access
    FDGM (1, 1) model based on unified fractional grey generation operator. Grey Systems: Theory and Application
    (Emerald, 2020-12-09) Meng, Wei; Li, Qian; Zeng, Bo; Yang, Yingjie
    Purpose The purpose of this paper is to unify the expression of fractional grey accumulating generation operator and the reducing generation operator, and build the FDGM(1,1) model with the unified fractional grey generation operator. Design/methodology/approach By systematically studying the properties of the fractional accumulating operator and the reducing operator, and analyzing the sensitivity of the order value, a unified expression of the fractional operators is given. The FDGM(1,1) model with the unified fractional grey generation operator is established. The relationship between the order value and the modeling error distribution is studied. Findings The expression of the fractional accumulating generation operator and the reducing generation operator can be unified to a simple expression. For −1
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    ItemOpen Access
    A novel grey Verhulst model with four parameters and its application to forecast the carbon dioxide emissions in China
    (Elsevier, 2023-07-21) Zeng, Bo; Zheng, Tingting; Yang, Yingjie; Wang, Jianzhou
    In the context of dual carbon targets, a reliable prediction of China’s carbon dioxide emissions is of great significance to the design and formulation of emission reduction policies by Chinese government. To this end, a novel grey Verhulst model with four parameters is proposed in this paper according to the evolution law and the data characteristics of China’s carbon dioxide emissions. The new model solves the defect of poor structural adaptability of the traditional grey Verhulst model by introducing a nonlinear correction term. Besides, the range of values for the order of the grey generation operator of the new model is expanded from a positive real number to any real number (r∈R+→r∈R) by expanding the value range of the Gamma function. The new model is used to simulate China’s carbon dioxide emissions, and its comprehensive mean relative percentage error is only 0.65%, which is better than that of the other three grey models (2.39%, 2.34%, 2.35% respectively). It shows that the proposed new model has better modeling ability. Finally, the new model is applied to predict China’s carbon dioxide emissions, and the results show that it will still increase year by year, reaching 13687 million tons by 2028 (only 11420 million tons in 2021). Therefore, some countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to control China’s carbon dioxide emissions in this paper.
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    ItemOpen Access
    Research on physical health early warning based on GM(1,1)
    (Elsevier, 2022-01-22) Zeng, Bo; Yang, Yingjie; Gou, Xiaoyi
    At present, hundreds of millions of Chinese people face increasingly serious health risks, and health checks have undoubtedly played a significant role in finding health risks. However, the current health check in China mainly judges the quality of physical functions by a single index value without dynamic analysis of the changing trends of the index, which may lead to unreasonable diagnostic conclusions. In this paper, the data characteristics of physical indicators are systematically analyzed, and grey system models dedicated to data with the character- istics are applied to simulate and predict the changing trends of body indicators. On this basis, possible path- ological changes in body organs were identified. Specifically, this paper analyses the state of human kidney functions by grey prediction models. The results showed that even when the renal function index (serum creatinine) is within the normal range, the human renal function might be abnormal. The grey model analysis of the change trends of serum creatinine can predict the potential health hazards of renal functions