Browsing by Author "Orazgani, Ali"

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    The banking sector and recovery in the EU economy
    (Sage, 2011-04-01) Barrell, Ray; Fitz Gerald, John; Whitworth, Rachel; Fic, T.; Orazgani, Ali
    Banks within Europe have become larger and more international as Europe has moved towards a unified financial services market, but this trend has been reversed since the crisis. In order to establish the effect of these structural changes on output in Europe, we use a micro data set to investigate the impact of size (as measured by asset size) on banks’ net interest margins. We show that larger banks offer lower borrowing costs for firms, which raises sustainable output. We then use NiGEM to look at the impact of banks becoming smaller and moving back into their home territory. We investigate the impacts on output according to country size, showing that the effects are generally larger in small countries, and also larger in economies that are more dependent on bank finance for their business investment decisions. Keywords: Net interest margins; bank size; European financial integration; growth; bank regulation JEL Classifications: E44; G10; G28
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    Growth risks for the EU emanating from global imbalances
    (European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Economics paper 483, 2013-04-01) Fic, T; Orazgani, Ali
    The objective of this paper is to examine the possible implications of the adjustment of global and intraEuropean imbalances, particularly in terms of the macroeconomic impacts. We design a series of macroeconomic scenarios and look at the impact of global and European shocks (corresponding to various policies aimed at reducing imbalances) on the economies of the biggest world players - the US, China, the oil exporting countries, and the EU and its individual members. The methodological approach we adopt is based around a series of simulations using the National Institute’s global macroeconomic model NIGEM. Key findings suggest that while global imbalances may be adjusted either through policies in the US or in China, the adjustment on the Chinese side is somewhat less costly for Europe than the adjustment on the US side. Intra-European imbalances may be reduced through various policies, an appropriate policy mix is probably required.
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    Household Debt and Foreign Currency Borrowing in New Member States of the EU
    (Economics and Finance Working Paper Series Working Paper No. 09-23, Brunel University, 2009-06-01) Barrell, Ray; Fic, T; Davis, E Philip; Orazgani, Ali
    In the light of rapidly rising household debt, we undertake panel estimation of determinants of debt-income ratios in new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe and interpret the results in the light of indicators of housing bubbles, estimates of equilibrium debt ratios from Western Europe and information on foreign currency borrowing in the CEE. We conclude that there are potential risks from overindebtedness in some of these countries, while in others where debt-income ratios appear sustainable, there remain risks related to high levels of foreign currency debt, notably where there is a floating exchange rate. Important issues are raised for future economic performance as well as the structure of banking regulation. Keywords: Transition economies, household debt, house price bubbles, foreign currency debt JEL: D14, F34
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    Macroeconomic impact from extending working lives (WP95)
    (DWP, 2013-04-01) Barrell, Ray; Kirby, S; Orazgani, Ali
    This report presents findings from research, conducted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and funded by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). NIESR were commissioned to use their global econometric model, NiGEM, in order to model various scenarios involving extending working lives, and to quantify the macroeconomic effects therein. The core scenario is a one year increase in working life for the UK population that is gradually phased in over the period 2010-14. In addition to this, NIESR carried out a series of counterfactual analyses which modelled the loss to the economy from older people leaving the labour market early.
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    Modelling the sovereign debt crisis in Europe
    (Sage, 2011-08-01) Orazgani, Ali; Holland, D.; Kirby, S.
    This note examines the impact of rising bond yields in certain Euro Area countries on debt sustainability. It concludes that without the financial assistance of the bailout packages, government debt in Greece would clearly have been unsustainable, while Ireland and Portugal would have been extremely vulnerable. We also examine the case of vulnerable countries which have not received bailouts – Italy, Spain and Belgium. We conclude that while they can absorb some temporary rise, as has been seen in recent weeks, a significant further sustained rise – more than 100–200 basis points – would call their solvency into question in the absence of financial assistance. We also examine the macroeconomic impact of the Greek debt restructuring that will follow from the resulting reduction in private sector wealth and bank capital. While the impact on Greece itself is, not surprisingly, substantial and negative, impacts on other European countries are small to negligible. The largest impact is on Germany where the impact on GDP might be –0.1 to –0.2 per cent over the period 2012–14. Clearly debt restructurings in other, larger Euro Area countries, if they should materialise, would have a substantially greater negative impact.
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    Projections of migration inflows under alternative scenarios for the UK and world economies
    (National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2008-11-30) Barrell, Ray; Gottschalk, Sylvia; Orazgani, Ali; Kirby, S.
    This study investigates the impact of economic fluctuations on the migrant stocks and flows in the UK. The stock of migrants depends on the speed of reaction to economic events and the net flow of migrants. Using a forecast of the UK we can project the number of migrants. Stylised projections by the ONS for years after 2015 are probably too large. The paper suggests a downward revision to migrant projections of around 360,000 by 2015 as a result of the downturn, reducing trend growth by 0.1 to 0.15 per cent per year until 2015. The result shows that stock adjustment is more rapid in A8 countries in comparison to the other source regions.
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    Reflecting to Rebuild and Strengthen Professional Development A Collection of ‘Post-Online’ Conversations
    (2020-09) Cartwright, Edward; Chapman, Gary; Davies, Jonathan S.; Gordon, Genevieve; Harman, Brian; Koenig, Brett; Lancastle, Neil; Lishman, Ros; Malan, Karen; Guarneros-Meza, Valeria; Nizalov, Denys; Orazgani, Ali; Orr, Russell; Omar, Paul; Saunders, Roger; Virmani, Swati; Allen, Thomas
    This monograph is a multi-authored collection consisting of our faculty’s post-online reflections. The objective was to gather thoughts and discussion around teaching and research during COVID-19. We aim to build and explore around ‘lived experiences’ to provide a reference point to help Continuous Professional Learning and Development (CPLD) activities. The section on ‘digital diaries’ consists of dialogues from staff categorised into varied themes. In the testimonies, staff have reflected around their challenges, targets, strengths, familiarity and how they managed to overcome difficulties and achieve goals. A special section, from the Centre for Urban Research on Austerity (CURA), is devoted to identifying how pandemic has intensified research challenges, highlighting the funding, time and location constraints on academic research.