Browsing by Author "Kahyalar, Neslihan"

Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Estimating the Effect of Tourism Development on the Informal Economy
    (2022-06-28) Kahyalar, Neslihan; Fethi, Sami; Neelu, Seetaram
    Although links between the tourism sector and the informal economy are fairly well documented, this paper is one of the first which provides an in-depth quantitative analysis of how the development of the tourism industry impacts on the size of the shadow economy of a destination at national level. The paper employs time series techniques and annual data from 1960 and 2018 from Turkey. In a first instant the size of the shadow economy is estimated using the electricity consumption method. Then, the effect of tourism development on the size of the shadow economy is assessed using the estimates. The findings show that there is a negative relationship between the two. A one percent increase in international tourism arrivals leads to a 0.21% and 0.316% fall in the size of the shadow economy in the short-run and long-run respectively.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Financial Crises in Retrospect of Turkish Economy: Evidence from a Probit Model 1970-2018
    (The Allied Social Science Association (ASSA), 2021-01-03) Fethi, Sami; Kahyalar, Neslihan
    This study empirically investigates the determinants of financial crisis which occurred in the Turkish economy in 1994, the late 1997 and 2007 respectively. A probit model is conducted by the main tool to identify the leading indicators of financial crisis using a sample of annual data covering the period 1970-2018. The evidence found in this paper indicates that terms of trade shock (TT), per capita income growth (CAPG) and M2 Reserve (M2R) are the best indicators, which determine financial crisis in the Turkish economy. Besides, real exchange misalignment (RER), current account balance (CABR) and annual reserve money to GDP (ARM) were not found significant in favour of the financial crisis. Based on our estimated results, (i) Turkish financial system may need a new law and regulation framework to improve the strength of the Turkish financial system. (ii) In the Turkish economy, human sources and facilities such as electronic communication have to be used efficiently. (iii) Macroeconomic stability and political soundness are the keys to the solution of the dilemma.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Financial Development, Trade and Growth Triangle: The Case of India
    (Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2007-08-07) Katircioglu, Salih; Kahyalar, Neslihan; Benar, Hasret
    This paper aims to investigate the possible co‐integration and the direction of causality between financial development, international trade, and economic growth in India. Annual data covering the 1965‐2004 period have been used to investigate co‐integration and Granger causality tests between financial development, international trade, and growth after employing unit root tests to see if the variables under consideration are stationary. Results reveal that there is a long‐run equilibrium relationship between financial development, international trade and real income growth in the case of India. Furthermore, unidirectional causality was investigated that runs from real income to exports and imports, from exports to imports, M2 and domestic credits, from M2 to imports, from imports to domestic credits. Bidirectional causality has also been obtained between real income and M2, and between real income and domestic credits. Finally, no direction of causality has been obtained between M2 and domestic credits. This study has shown that the supply‐leading and the demand‐following hypotheses cannot be inferred for the Indian economy alone themselves. And furthermore, the export‐led and the import‐led hypotheses again cannot be inferred for the Indian economy based on the sample period, 1965‐2004. This study is the first of its kind, which investigates the possible co‐integration and the direction of causality between the financial development, international trade and economic growth triangle not only in the case of India but also in the relevant literature to the best of one's knowledge.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Formal and informal sectors: is there any wage differential?
    (Taylor & Francis, 2018-06-17) Kahyalar, Neslihan; Fethi, S.; Katircioglu, S.; Ouattara, Bazoumana
    The main objective of this paper is to investigate if a wage difference exists between formal and informal sectors in the case of the Turkish labour market using a sample of wageworkers. To this end, we use data for 2004 and 2009 and a novel definition of the informal sector. On the methodological front, we adopt three alternative decomposition techniques, namely, the Oaxaca-Ransom (1994) decomposition in the context of mean regression, the Machado and Mata (2005) decomposition in the quantile regression framework and the non-parametric decomposition method proposed by Nopo (2008). The results reveal the existence of a wage gap between the two sectors. We found education and experience to be key determinants of earnings. The findings of this paper have implications for policies, which might be directed towards developing approaches with a focus on education and experience.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    The future of the workforce in Leicestershire.
    (https://llep.org.uk/app/uploads/2022/06/The-Future-Workforce-of-Leicestershire.pdf, 2022-06-20) Cartwright, Edward; Igudia, Eghosa; Kahyalar, Neslihan; Le, Nhan
    In this report we make projections on the likely shape of Leicester and Leicestershire’s workforce for the next 10-20 years. We do so based on an analysis of a range of existing data including the Office for National Statistics (ONS) population projections, Annual Population Survey, Annual Survey of Hours, and Earnings and the 2011 Census.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    The Impact of Financial Crises on the Informal Economy: The Turkish Case
    (Athens Journal of Business and Economics, 2019-06-11) Kahyalar, Neslihan; Ouattara, Bazoumana; Sami, Fethi
    Turkey has a large informal economy and has been hit by severe financial crises causing a devastating impact on its economy. The main objective of this paper is to analyse the impact of financial crises on the informal economy in Turkey. We distinguish between four types of financial crises that make up or aggregate financial crises: internal, external, currency and banking crises. Using vector autoregression (VARX) in the presence of two key variables (the financial crisis and the informal economy), we conduct annual time series analysis from 1980 to 2011 and estimate the response of the informal economy to each type of crisis. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical study to examine the effects of financial crises on the informal economy in the context of the Turkish economy. The results show that each type of crisis produces a significantly positive response to the informal economy. In particular, the findings of this paper show that financial crises tend to have a permanent positive effect on the informal economy, suggesting that the informal economy is an important buffer, which tends to expand in times of crises in Turkey.