Browsing by Author "Fic, T"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Growth risks for the EU emanating from global imbalances
    (European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Economics paper 483, 2013-04-01) Fic, T; Orazgani, Ali
    The objective of this paper is to examine the possible implications of the adjustment of global and intraEuropean imbalances, particularly in terms of the macroeconomic impacts. We design a series of macroeconomic scenarios and look at the impact of global and European shocks (corresponding to various policies aimed at reducing imbalances) on the economies of the biggest world players - the US, China, the oil exporting countries, and the EU and its individual members. The methodological approach we adopt is based around a series of simulations using the National Institute’s global macroeconomic model NIGEM. Key findings suggest that while global imbalances may be adjusted either through policies in the US or in China, the adjustment on the Chinese side is somewhat less costly for Europe than the adjustment on the US side. Intra-European imbalances may be reduced through various policies, an appropriate policy mix is probably required.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Household Debt and Foreign Currency Borrowing in New Member States of the EU
    (Economics and Finance Working Paper Series Working Paper No. 09-23, Brunel University, 2009-06-01) Barrell, Ray; Fic, T; Davis, E Philip; Orazgani, Ali
    In the light of rapidly rising household debt, we undertake panel estimation of determinants of debt-income ratios in new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe and interpret the results in the light of indicators of housing bubbles, estimates of equilibrium debt ratios from Western Europe and information on foreign currency borrowing in the CEE. We conclude that there are potential risks from overindebtedness in some of these countries, while in others where debt-income ratios appear sustainable, there remain risks related to high levels of foreign currency debt, notably where there is a floating exchange rate. Important issues are raised for future economic performance as well as the structure of banking regulation. Keywords: Transition economies, household debt, house price bubbles, foreign currency debt JEL: D14, F34