Browsing by Author "Fethi, Sami"

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    Estimating the Effect of Tourism Development on the Informal Economy
    (2022-06-28) Kahyalar, Neslihan; Fethi, Sami; Neelu, Seetaram
    Although links between the tourism sector and the informal economy are fairly well documented, this paper is one of the first which provides an in-depth quantitative analysis of how the development of the tourism industry impacts on the size of the shadow economy of a destination at national level. The paper employs time series techniques and annual data from 1960 and 2018 from Turkey. In a first instant the size of the shadow economy is estimated using the electricity consumption method. Then, the effect of tourism development on the size of the shadow economy is assessed using the estimates. The findings show that there is a negative relationship between the two. A one percent increase in international tourism arrivals leads to a 0.21% and 0.316% fall in the size of the shadow economy in the short-run and long-run respectively.
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    Financial Crises in Retrospect of Turkish Economy: Evidence from a Probit Model 1970-2018
    (The Allied Social Science Association (ASSA), 2021-01-03) Fethi, Sami; Kahyalar, Neslihan
    This study empirically investigates the determinants of financial crisis which occurred in the Turkish economy in 1994, the late 1997 and 2007 respectively. A probit model is conducted by the main tool to identify the leading indicators of financial crisis using a sample of annual data covering the period 1970-2018. The evidence found in this paper indicates that terms of trade shock (TT), per capita income growth (CAPG) and M2 Reserve (M2R) are the best indicators, which determine financial crisis in the Turkish economy. Besides, real exchange misalignment (RER), current account balance (CABR) and annual reserve money to GDP (ARM) were not found significant in favour of the financial crisis. Based on our estimated results, (i) Turkish financial system may need a new law and regulation framework to improve the strength of the Turkish financial system. (ii) In the Turkish economy, human sources and facilities such as electronic communication have to be used efficiently. (iii) Macroeconomic stability and political soundness are the keys to the solution of the dilemma.