Browsing by Author "Coleman, Simeon"

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    An investigation of regime shifts in UK commercial property returns: a time series analysis
    (Routledge, 2015-09-22) Leone, Vitor; Coleman, Simeon
    The random-walk hypothesis, vis-à-vis asset price, suggests that prices traded in a market cannot be predicted based on historical information. Employing unsecuritized UK commercial property returns, we analyse this hypothesis by investigating regime shifts or multiple changes in persistence in the series. Our results uncover regime shifts in both the aggregate and sector-specific data. Specifically, the shifts are less frequent in the Industrial sector, compared to the Office, Retail and Aggregate returns data. We highlight some implications for academics, practitioners and regulators.
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    Latin-American Stock Market Dynamics and Co-movement
    (Wiley, 2018-10-19) Coleman, Simeon; Leone, Vitor; De Medeiros, Ribeiro Otavio
    With the economic relevance of the relationships among emerging and frontier equity markets becoming increasingly significant, this paper investigates co-movement among returns from six Latin-American stock markets [Mexico (BMV), Brazil (BOVESPA), Chile (IPSA), Peru (IGBVL), Argentina (MERVAL), Venezuela (IBVC)] and also with the U.S. S&P 500 Composite index. In part, we employ Principal Component Analyses, to account for the maximum portion of the variance present in the returns by examining rolling windows with 8,6,4,3,2, and 1-year periods. We also investigate the incidence of structural breaks and co-movement, aiming to uncover the dynamics in co-movements among these markets. We find evidence of high co-movement among the Latin-American markets, and also with the U.S. markets. Venezuela and Mexico’s equity markets are at the extremes. However, our results do not corroborate findings of clear evidence, reported in previous studies, of the U.S. having a leading role in the region.
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    Technological progress, non-price factors competitiveness, and changes in trade income elasticities: empirical evidence from South Korea and Hong Kong
    (Edward Elgar, 2020-09-01) Leone, Vitor; Resende Cunha, Marco Flavio; Coleman, Simeon; Torres Almeida Raposo, Daniela
    In the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model literature, income elasticities (IEs) are considered as the crucial element determining a country’s long-run growth rate. Although the extant literature accepts that technology matters for IEs magnitude, explanations linking technology and IEs magnitude are limited. In this paper, we make use of the National Innovation System (NIS) concept from the Evolutionary School to explain the channels through which the size of a country’s IEs is influenced by the level of development of its NIS, which in turn is a channel through which the non-price competitiveness factors work. Additionally, we empirically test the hypothesis that the catch-up allowed by NIS developments achieved in South Korea and Hong Kong improved their IEs over the 1980–1995 period. Our empirical results suggest a link between the level of NIS development and the size of the IEs.