Browsing by Author "Yuan, Chaoqing"

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    Forecasting China's energy demand and self-sufficiency rate by grey forecasting model and Markov model
    (Elsevier, 2015) Xie, Naiming; Yuan, Chaoqing; Yang, Yingjie
    This paper applies novel models to forecast the developing trends of China’s energy production and consumption under the influence of China’s energy saving policy. An optimized single variable discrete grey forecasting model is adopted to forecast the total amount of energy production and consumption while a novel Markov approach based on quadratic programming model is proposed to forecast the trends of energy production and consumption structures. The proposed models are used to simulate China’s energy production and consumption during 2006–2011 and forecast its trends in 2015 and 2020. Results demonstrate that proposed models can effectively simulate and forecast the total amounts and structures of energy production and consumption. And by comparing with regression model, results show proposed model is a little better than regression in simulating and forecasting the case. Although the growth rate of energy consumption in China has decreased under the energy saving policy, total amount of energy consumption and the proportions of natural gas and other energies keep growing while the self-sufficiency rate of crude oil and natural gas continues to drop.
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    Grey Number Sequence Forecasting Approach for Interval Analysis: A case of China's Gross Domestic Product Prediction
    (Research Information Ltd, 2014) Xie, Naiming; Liu, Sifeng; Yuan, Chaoqing; Yang, Yingjie
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    On novel grey forecasting model based on non-homogeneous index sequence
    (Elsevier, 2012) Xie, N. M.; Liu, S. F.; Yang, Yingjie; Yuan, Chaoqing
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    Relation between China’s gasoline prices and international crude oil prices
    (Taylor and Francis, 2016-12-07) Yuan, Chaoqing; Yang, Yingjie; Liu, Sifeng; Fang, Zhigeng
    China’s gasoline prices are still regulated by government although China's refined oil pricing mechanism has been reformed for many times. In this paper, proximity and similarity between China’s gasoline prices and Brent crude oil prices are calculated in the different stages with China’s refined oil pricing mechanism reforming, by using daily data and grey relational analysis method. The results show that there have undergone great changes of the similarity and proximity between China’s gasoline prices and international crude oil prices.
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    Research on Index System for Disabled Elders Evaluation and Grey Clustering Model Based on End-point Mixed Possibility Functions
    (Research Information Ltd, 2019-11-01) Liu, Sifeng; Fan, Yun; Yang, Yingjie; Tan, Xuerui; Fang, Zhigeng; Chen, Yequn; Zhang, Qin; Xie, Naiming; Yuan, Chaoqing; Xue, Qingyuan; Tao, Liangyan; Guo, Xiaojun
    An operational ability assessment system for older adults is of great help to address health and social challenges for ageing. In this paper, the main problems in currently available ADL and ability evaluation systems have been analyzed. The basic principles to build an index system for disability elders evaluation have been put forwarded. Then，an improved Barthel index system for ADL evaluation and a new older adults ability evaluation system consisted of 4 first-level indexes and 14 secondary indexes based on experts’ opinion and the ability assessment system for older adults by Ministry of Civil Affairs of China have been built. The grey clustering model based on end-point mixed triangular possibility function has been introduced. And three living examples of adults’ disability evaluation have been conducted. It is confirmed clearly that the three older adults belong to different categories of "severe disability", "mild disability", and "ability passable" respectively. The research results can be used as reference for government to formulate the elderly-care policies, to run and allocate the elderly-care resources, as well as reference for various nursing or elderly-care institutions.